Who says you can't be surprised in politics these days?!

Ever since I read on Bourque that Belinda Stronach, Conservative MP for Newmarket-Aurora decided to cross the floor and join the Liberal (and become Minister of Human Resources, no less) while at work, I've been itching to post.

Most of the Canadian bloggers on my blogroll (which is not comprehensive, but they'll lead you to others) will have one post or another on this topic, so check them out too. But this has caused quitea stir in actual Canadian space and in the Canadian blogosphere. All Conservatives are pissed and the Liberals are getting drunk with giddiness. So time to put on my peanut-gallery pundit hat:

1) Playing with numbers, the vote is now 152-151 against the government sans the Independents. Carolyn Parrish has stated she'll vote with the budget, and media reports indicate Kilgour's leaning against, leaving the Cons-Bloc one up. That leaves Chuck Cadman, who may be undergoing treatment this week and may or may not be at the House of Commons to vote. If he's there, he's the 'gov-maker', I guess, as his vote for the budget ties up the House (with the Speaker voting with the gov't) and against defeats it. If he's not there, the budget's still defeated. To throw in another monkeywrench, two Nfld Conservative MPs still aren't sure how they're going to vote as their constituents want the Atlantic Accord to go through. But assuming they toe the party line, it's going to be a photo finish.

2) Was Belinda's move opportunistic? Harper seems to think so. I'm not so sure. Definitely, her defection smells of something. If she's actually doing this out of her principles, as she said, why defect so close to the vote? Why not earlier? It's a huge gamble, especially for such a high-profile rookie MP. While the cabinet position reward was definitely a gift, the defeat of the budget would make her the shortest serving cabinet minister EVER. But the thing is, if she had stayed with the Conservatives and won the next election, she would've been guaranteed a cabinet position, so why risk it? No, something doesn't feel right at all. It seems like she knows something that none of us do.

3) How will this play out in Newmarket-Aurora? Since '93, both York Simcoe/York North (Newmarket) and Vaughn-King-Aurora have gone to the Liberals in the Federal government so this crossing the floor won't change much as a 'small-L' liberal. However, I don't think constituents enjoy their members of government crossing the floor, so it'll be interesting to see in the next election whether they're voting for the member or voting for the party.

4) Some have called this as another of PM Martin's desperation tactics. But it was Belinda who approached the Liberals, not the other way around. And I don't think any party leader would refuse to accept an opponent crossing the floor.

5) If Martin survives this debacle, will all the pundits agree that there's confidence in the House again and allow the government to do their thing until the Gomery report actually bury the Liberals?

6) If Martin does survive, he better do something phenomenal, like oh, I don't know, actually lead and run a government and implement policies. He'd have been given half a year. DO SOMETHING. Otherwise they will crash and burn Kim Campbell-style, which would worsen the country moreso.

7) Finally, I wanna give a big shout out to the gossip columnist who asked about the effect this will have on her relationship with Peter Mackay. Idiot. Like it's any of our business. Please turn in your press card, you're being kicked out of the club.